On October 14, Pakistan announced that its Army Air Defense Corps had officially inducted the HQ-9/P medium-to-high-altitude air defense missile system. This development carries significant implications worth exploring.
First, Air Defense Enhancement
The HQ-9 marks Pakistan's first modern medium-to-high-altitude air defense missile system, significantly expanding its air defense depth. Unlike the older, fixed-position systems such as the S-200, the HQ-9 is a mobile missile system. This mobility means it is not limited to protecting key areas, such as important cities like Karachi. Instead, it can be deployed flexibly to provide air defense cover for entire military corps.
Second, Restricting Indian Air Force Operations
India's 36 Rafale fighter jets are primarily aimed at China, with the first 18 assigned to the 17th Squadron under the Eastern Air Command, based at Ambala, 240 kilometers west of the India-Pakistan border and 490 kilometers south of the Line of Control in Kashmir. The remaining 18 are assigned to the 101st Squadron under the Western Air Command, based at Hasimara in northeastern India.
These two squadrons have historically focused on China, with the 17th Squadron also occasionally targeting Pakistan. In the past, Pakistan's air defenses were limited, allowing India to rely on Mirage 2000H fighter jets armed with precision-guided bombs to achieve air superiority over Pakistan's military (as seen in the Kargil conflict). However, with the induction of the LY-80 in 2017 and now the HQ-9, Pakistan's air defense capabilities have been greatly enhanced. India can no longer hope to suppress Pakistan's military with just a few precision-guided bombs.
India's most effective standoff strike capability now relies on the combination of Rafale fighters and Scalp EG cruise missiles. This means that a significant portion of India's Rafale fleet must now be redirected towards Pakistan, and the range of targets has expanded. What could previously be achieved with precision-guided bombs now requires more valuable standoff weapons (with no guarantee of success). The threat posed by the Rafale has thus been diluted. Moreover, purchasing another 36 Rafale jets at a unit cost of $240 million is a significant economic challenge for India.
Third, Behind the "Model Synergy"
Pakistan's Army Chief of Staff, General Kamal Javed Bajwa, stated, "The exemplary synergy between the Pakistan Air Force and the Army Air Defense Corps has made Pakistan's air defense impregnable." This "exemplary synergy" is worth examining.
In modern air defense operations, achieving efficient coordination relies on one key element: data links. Only by integrating various sensor units, fire units, and other combat units through data links can the goal of defeating the enemy while preserving oneself be achieved. If each unit operates independently, no matter how strong its individual capabilities, the outcome will not be favorable. The destruction of the JY-27 radar in Syria is a case in point.
It appears that Pakistan's air defense system has become increasingly similar to that of China: man-portable QW-1 missiles, short-range FM-90, medium-range LY-80, and long-range HQ-9. It would not be surprising if Pakistan has adopted China's complete air defense integrated command system. However, this is for ground air defense systems. To achieve "exemplary synergy" with the Air Force, the aerial units must also be equipped with a tri-service data link system.
Fourth, Pakistan's Pro-China and Pro-US Dynamics
Pakistan has little choice in this matter. The United States is focused on courting India to counter China, and Pakistan has been effectively excluded from this circle. The current environment in Pakistan does not support the growth of a pro-US faction. If China's tri-service data link system is fully integrated into Pakistan's military, as mentioned above, non-Chinese equipment will quickly become marginalized, and so will the pro-US faction.
During the "Joint Exercise Western 2021," China and Russia even developed a dedicated command and information system to connect their respective systems. If Pakistan completes this integration, it would achieve direct connectivity without the need for intermediaries. At that point, Pakistan could truly be considered a meaningful ally.
Finally, The Last Piece of the Puzzle
In terms of Pakistan's military modernization, the final piece might be the introduction of technical support aircraft, such as the jammer aircraft seen in the "Eagle IX" exercise. In this context, the J-10 and the FC-1 have no fundamental difference.
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