About the Golden Dome System and Others

 On May 20th, the former president, known as "the Donald," announced the launch of the Golden Dome missile defense system plan. My immediate reaction upon hearing the news was that the Star Wars program was back. Then, upon closer examination, the cost was revealed to be 175 billion US dollars. What? How much? I thought I had missed a zero or even two. After confirming the figure multiple times, I went to bed. After chatting about my own interests, I'll now discuss this topic.

First, strategic goals. The Golden Dome system is primarily aimed at China (with Russia being secondary, as Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal represents the biggest existing threat). On March 21st last year, the RAND Corporation released "US Military Strategy in the Indo-Pacific to Counter China," which explicitly pointed out the decline in the US's nuclear deterrence capabilities against China. Prior to this, the US had been attempting to bring China into strategic nuclear arms negotiations. The core objective was to restrict China's nuclear deterrence and counterattack capabilities without incurring additional costs, thereby ensuring its nuclear superiority and coercive power. However, China pushed back. When Ms. Hua served as the spokesperson, she asked: Does the US hope to reduce its nuclear arsenal to China's level, or does it aim to elevate China's nuclear arsenal to match its own? Then, in July 2024, China released the "Working Paper on the Initiative of Mutual No-First Use of Nuclear Weapons," which put the US in a tough spot.

With the previous tactics proving ineffective, it was only natural for Trump to propose the Golden Dome system. If he couldn't limit your "arrows," he would create a "shield" to similarly curb your strategic deterrent capabilities, akin to Reagan's Star Wars program in essence. Second, the likelihood of success. When Reagan introduced the Star Wars program, the US was in a period of rising national power. And from the declassified information in recent years, much of it was intended to bluff the Soviet Union.

But as mentioned in "Starting with Intermediate-Range Missiles":

The Golden Dome system, in fact, provides us with a legitimate opportunity to enhance our strategic deterrent capabilities. See the response from the Foreign Ministry spokesperson: The Golden Dome system, in fact, provides us with a legitimate opportunity to enhance our strategic deterrent capabilities. See the response from the Foreign Ministry spokesperson: In the past, the US forced the Soviet Union to follow suit, leading to its collapse. Now it's our turn. The question is, under the current situation, who will bring down whom? To illustrate, back then the US played poker with the Soviet Union, putting all its chips on the table with the Star Wars program and asking the Soviet Union to follow. Now, Trump has put a few chips on the table with the Golden Dome, but we all know he only has a pair of threes. If we go all-in and call for a showdown, would Trump dare to follow? If he does, he'll be the next Soviet Union. If not, he'll have to concede. Third, beneath the surface. Trump is not a selfless individual. It's impossible for him to plant trees for future generations to enjoy. A nationwide strategic missile defense system, regardless of cost and technology, even if production and deployment began immediately, cannot be completed within three years. If such high production capacity were truly achievable, the US wouldn't even struggle to produce equipment for Ukraine, resorting to depleting its inventory. Moreover, we hold the upper hand in rare earths. How many people on Earth believe Trump's claim of deploying the system within three years is questionable. Of course, the bigger possibility is that he doesn't care how many people believe it—after all, since taking office, he's made numerous unsubstantiated claims. What he wants is to open a door. And what this door is for, of course, is for things that cannot be placed on the table. The military-industrial complex is one of the pillars of the shadow government, and Trump, having risen to power, naturally needs to deliver. Musk made a big splash with DOGE, claiming to cut costs by 170 billion US dollars (though many believe this figure is also inflated), yet military spending soared past 1 trillion US dollars in one go. The signs are too obvious to ignore. Thus, my personal predictions for the Golden Dome are as follows: 1) Costs will definitely rise; 2) Technological achievements will be minimal, and it's impossible to achieve the planned goals within three years. However, the Iron Dome system could be modified as a stopgap; 3) Blame China, such as accusing China of cutting supply chains, causing project delays and cost overruns, and so on. In short, it's all China's fault. Fourth, our countermeasures.

1. Proceed as usual. Since we know you only have a pair of threes, no matter how much you bluster, it's useless. We just need to carry on with our work as planned.
2. Counter coercion. Learn from the Reagan administration's tactics in bluffing the Soviet Union. Speaking of which, let's mention the CCTV children's program on May 22nd. This is clearly not a regular or proper channel for information release. Take a look at last year's report on the intercontinental missile test:

   

   
   The publishing entity, channel, timing, and format all have strict requirements. The video used in the program was from the C-17 test of air-launched ballistic missiles. The intriguing part is whether this event is real or fake. Whether the US will follow suit is a question.