India is soon to face a major predicament.

 

Let’s cut to the chase: there are mounting signs that India is about to encounter significant troubles! Let’s begin with this piece of news: today, India launched an Earth observation satellite dubbed “EOS-09,” but shortly after liftoff, the ground station lost contact with the satellite—a clear-cut failure. At first blush, this might not seem like much. To fully grasp the implications, two contextual backdrops are essential.

Firstly, when it comes to rocket launches, we Chinese have become rather inured. Successful rocket launches are a common occurrence in our news, to the point where they barely register as remarkable. However, the Indian perspective is a stark contrast. Despite being a major country with grand ambitions in the space domain, India’s experience with rocket launches is far from ours. In 2024, India managed a mere five rocket launches. This disparity in experience leads to a starkly different mindset: we take it in stride, while they are fixated on every single launch.

Secondly, what exactly was the nature of the rocket India launched this time? According to Indian accounts, the Earth observation satellite was equipped with a C-band synthetic aperture radar and a multispectral imager, enabling high-precision, real-time observation of ground targets. In layman’s terms, this is a military reconnaissance satellite. Although the Indians emphasized its role in disaster response, discerning observers quickly realized that this was not its primary function.

When we connect the dots to the recent印巴空战 (India-Pakistan aerial clash), where India suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Pakistan, the urgency behind this rocket launch becomes clear. The launch likely had some military significance, but given the haste to use up one of their scarce annual launch opportunities right after the aerial debacle, it seems the primary motivator was more about “Bharat Winology” (a term referring to India’s obsession with projecting an image of victory). The rocket reportedly had technical issues from the get-go. Had they taken a breather to address these, success might have been possible. However, much like Trump, Modi’s relentless drive to “win” led to overzealous haste, resulting in a counterproductive outcome. What was supposed to be a moment of glory ended up being yet another embarrassment.

This incident reveals a deeper underlying issue: since May 7, India has given off an impression of being deeply ensnared by a fixation on “winning.” Its actions have become increasingly divorced from reality. Take the India-Pakistan conflict, for instance. Despite the fighting lasting a mere four days and ending in defeat for India, the Indian response was nothing short of surreal. They feigned victory and even initiated a 10-day nationwide patriotic victory宣传 campaign from May 13 to May 23, aimed at drumming up support for their “great military triumph” over Pakistan.

Yet, the entire world recognizes that India suffered a devastating loss in this clash. How can India expect others to believe its self-congratulatory narrative when it’s so clearly at odds with reality? During this period, India has lashed out at anyone daring to suggest that it was defeated.

Indian officials have made absurd claims, such as asserting that their Rafale fighters are “J-20 slayers,” even claiming that one Rafale can take on five J-20s. However, it was reported that a Rafale was shot down by a J-10C. To India’s dismay, it was Agence France-Presse (AFP) that delivered the reality check, confirming that the Rafale was indeed downed. Given that the Rafale is a French-made aircraft, this report carried significant weight. The situation became extremely awkward: were Rafale fighters actually shot down, and how many were lost on May 7? At a press conference, an Indian general initially dodged the question. When finally cornered, he offered a statement that was more humiliating than a direct admission: “We need to see if we achieved our objectives. I do not wish to make comments that would benefit our adversaries.” These words were more damaging than a straightforward confession.

Had India chosen to handle the matter with discretion and allow tensions to subside, it might have weathered the storm. However, “Bharat Winology” took hold once again. On May 13, Modi visited an air force base near the India-Pakistan border to attend a celebration. He boastfully declared that his purpose was to meet with “brave air warriors.” The backdrop for his speech was a newly acquired S-400 air defense system.

Why go to such lengths? Because Pakistan had previously claimed that its JF-17 fighter jets had destroyed an S-400 system. India sought to display the S-400 to disprove Pakistan’s assertion. Yet, in an ironic twist, shortly after this celebration, a local Indian media outlet reported that a hero had operated the S-400 system and had “gone down with the ship” during a Pakistani attack. This effectively confirmed that the S-400 system had indeed been destroyed, exposing Modi’s lies and delivering a resounding slap to his credibility. The repeated failures of “Bharat Winology” have left Modi in a precarious position.

In an attempt to salvage the situation, Modi has tried to act tough, much like China does with the U.S., by filing a complaint against Trump’s recent tariff policies at the WTO. This move was likely intended to project India as a formidable power unafraid of the U.S. However, the Americans have largely ignored India’s provocation. As for Trump, he is known for his vindictive nature. If he refrains from retaliation, it’s either because the opponent is too strong to take on or because he chooses not to engage. India, clearly not in the former category, has become a target for Trump’s ire. While Trump may find China challenging to confront, India is a different story. It remains to be seen how India will weather the impending backlash.

Despite India’s relentless efforts to prove itself a winner and seek the limelight, it consistently ends up embarrassingly exposed. With the world’s ridicule growing louder, Modi has sought to制造大新闻 in the space domain, only to repeat the same embarrassing outcome. This has led some to wonder: what’s gotten into Modi recently? Why is he acting so immature and making things worse? Is he losing his mind? However, putting ourselves in Modi’s shoes, it becomes evident that he is not mad but rather quite rational. Over the past decade, Modi has aimed to塑造 India’s image in the eyes of the international community, particularly global capital, as a major power on par with China, boasting a massive population of 1.4 billion and limitless potential. With the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, India sees an opportunity to replace China in manufacturing. But how can India substantiate these claims? Militarily, it cannot appear weak. If foreign investors perceive India as unable to even stand up to Pakistan, let alone China, they would hesitate to invest. Economically, India also cannot afford to seem feeble. Geopolitically, the Himalayas, a natural barrier just a few hundred kilometers from the Ganges Plain, are home to 300 to 400 million people within the range of India’s long-range rocket artillery. If India were to cross the Himalayas, it would face a flat and defenseless terrain. Thus, Modi has no choice but to constantly assert India’s strength, even if it means engaging in self-deception. This explains why an Indian general recently made the preposterous claim that while India might struggle against Pakistan, it is confident in taking on China. It’s akin to boasting that one can defeat Sun Wukong’s individual hairs but is certain of victory against the Monkey King himself.

India’s ambitions are rooted in its desire for development. However, there is a more daunting prospect on the horizon. Over the past decade, the U.S. has been actively courting India, inviting it to join the “Quad” with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, encouraging businesses to invest in India, and even allowing India to purchase Russian oil despite global sanctions on Russia. The underlying rationale is clear: the U.S. views India as a potential strategic player that could undermine China from the rear or, at the very least, divert some of China’s attention in the western region. If India cannot even prevail against Pakistan and thus fails to serve as a counterweight to China, it loses its strategic value to the U.S. In such a scenario, India would no longer be worth the U.S.’s investment. The U.S. is not known for its patience with underperformers. If India cannot play the role expected of it, the U.S. may well turn on it. This explains India’s recent obsession with “Bharat Winology,” resorting to lies and appearing increasingly unhinged in its efforts to prove itself a major power. India’s motivations are twofold: to deceive as many as possible and to demonstrate its relevance to the U.S., lest it be deemed useless and discarded. However, each of India’s recent attempts to grab attention has backfired, further exposing its inadequacies and humiliations.

Thus, the question arises: how will the U.S. deal with India? Will it be roasted, boiled, or simmered? India, having chosen to dance with wolves and scheme with tigers, must be prepared for the consequences. Its recent bout of “Bharat Winology” is nothing but a desperate last stand. Those who love to manipulate others will eventually reap what they sow.