Just now, the US and Russia talked on the phone again. Is Ukraine and Russia going to cease fire?

 

Today's article is short. Let's first look at this piece of news: Recently, Trump had a two-hour phone call with Putin, specifically discussing the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The two sides seemed to be very close during the call. For instance, Putin was visiting a gifted children's center in Sochi, a Black Sea resort, and "casually" made the call to Trump. It seemed quite performative. After the call, Putin even gave a three-minute speech to journalists right there at the gifted children's center. So relaxed! Does this mean that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is imminent? The answer is: No! Why? We just need to look at Russia's key interest rate, which is currently at 21%. That's way too high. And that's just the key rate. Just imagine what the bank loan interest rates must be like! And even more importantly, think about this: For a country's manufacturing industry, how much profit can it possibly make? With a key interest rate of 21%, can it hold on? Obviously not! There's another figure that proves this point: In the first quarter of this year, among the countries importing Chinese cars, although Russia was still the top, the decline was significant, reaching 31%! What does this figure imply? It means that Russia's economy, especially from the perspective of manufacturing and civilian aspects, is essentially contracting.

But what about the military industry? Due to massive state investment, it's thriving so much that even Europe and the United States can't keep up. This is the downside of a country investing heavily in military production: You can't afford to stop, because stopping would trigger an economic crisis, and a big one at that. If the war continues, the economy can still be sustained. The people, seeing the war ongoing, are more willing to endure the hardships. However, if the war were to cease, many issues previously overshadowed by the war would come to light. Under such circumstances, even if Russia's top brass wants to stop the war, dare they? So, under what conditions would the Russians agree to a ceasefire? There must be a consensus, not necessarily from everyone, but at least the majority of Russians, that regardless of land, resources, national prestige, or strategic position, Russia has gained enough from this war. But currently, we are far from reaching such a consensus. Therefore, the war will continue. In this situation, no phone calls can change the outcome! As the saying goes: It's easy to start a war, but hard to end one.