Five days in, where is the Middle East conflict heading?

Let's cut to the chase. On the 16th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the Israeli Air Force had gained control over the skies above Tehran, with Israeli fighter jets able to fly freely over the Iranian capital.

Israel has also released various videos showing footage from above Tehran, claiming to have locked onto the city's air defense systems and radars.

How should we interpret this?

The Israelis' claims are essentially true. As previously discussed, Iran's air defense system is primarily composed of Russian-made S-300 and S-200 systems, along with domestically produced ones of even lower quality.

Compared to the air defenses of the former Yugoslavia, which was heavily bombed by NATO in 1999, Iran's capabilities are not much better. Back then, the Yugoslav air defenses were largely based on the S-200, and the Soviet Union had intended to sell them the S-300.

However, due to Milosevic's lack of urgency before the war, the purchase was delayed for years. During the NATO bombing campaign, the only stealth aircraft used were F-117 bombers. This time, however, the Israeli Air Force deployed the F-35 stealth fighters, which Iran's air defenses simply cannot detect, let alone shoot down. The recent photos claiming to show downed F-35s were clearly doctored.

Iran's air force is also no match for Israel's. Its main aircraft are models like the F-4, F-5, and even the F-14, which were not even considered advanced 40 years ago. There is a fundamental technological gap between Iran's and Israel's air forces.

As a result, the Israeli Air Force can essentially bomb any target it chooses.

This situation has had a significant impact on the daily lives of Iranians. Reports indicate that long lines of vehicles are waiting for fuel on the streets of Iran, and essential supplies like water and toilet paper have been snapped up in many stores.

Many people might wonder: wasn't Iran once considered a formidable power? How did it come to this so quickly?

The main reason lies in Iran's strategic path dependence over the past decade. Iran once seemed strong, with a so-called "arc of resistance" that spanned thousands of kilometers across the region.

Its armed forces numbered nearly two million, which seemed impressive.

However, behind this facade, there were serious underlying issues.

Many of these forces were essentially militia, armed with little more than AK-47s and other rudimentary weapons. They were capable of guerrilla tactics and hit-and-run attacks but lacked the ability to conduct large-scale offensive or defensive operations. They couldn't even engage in mobile warfare, let alone face off against the United States or Israel in a conventional battle due to the overwhelming technological gap. In such a situation, Iran should have focused on technological upgrades rather than relying on low-level military capabilities. When Israel, with the support of Western satellites and electronic reconnaissance, launched airstrikes, Iran's defenses were virtually non-existent.

But even though Iran can still launch missiles in retaliation, this capability is rapidly diminishing. There were claims that Iran had 10,000 missiles, but this number is highly questionable. Recently, the Italian Foreign Minister stated that if Iran were allowed to further develop its military capabilities, it would have 2,000 missiles and 10 nuclear warheads within a few months. This suggests that Iran's actual missile inventory and its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict are quite limited. It might not even be able to sustain the scale of retaliation seen on the first day for more than a week. Its future looks bleak, with the possibility of continued one-sided attacks.

However, does this mean that Israel is guaranteed victory and can simply focus on pounding Iran? Not necessarily. Israel has its own set of problems. First, the Gaza front is far from resolved. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that Sergeant Naveh Lesheem of the Golani Brigade's 12th Battalion was killed in combat in southern Gaza. In the same battle, one combat officer and three soldiers from the same battalion were severely injured. On Sunday, Captain Tal Mofshit of the Golani Brigade was also killed in southern Gaza. Despite nearly two years of blockade, Gaza remains under severe water and food shortages, yet the resistance continues. Over 100,000 Israeli troops, more than a third of Israel's military force, are still bogged down in Gaza, engaged in brutal urban warfare with Hamas.

Moreover, Hezbollah in Lebanon has been severely weakened, but Israel still has to allocate a third of its forces to guard the border. With the ongoing turmoil in Syria, Israel has had to deploy additional troops there as well. Despite expanding its territory, the Israeli military has fewer and fewer mobile forces available. Ground invasion of Iran is simply out of the question. Although the Israeli Air Force faces no significant resistance over Iranian skies, its ammunition supply is dwindling, and it has to ration its attacks. In the past two days, the Israeli Air Force has only been able to conduct sporadic bombings, just to maintain a presence, rather than launching a full-scale bombardment. This is similar to Iran's situation: they are also launching 20 to 30 missiles a day, engaging in a form of guerrilla warfare. Although the results are limited, it keeps Israel on edge nationwide.

So, in the past five days since Israel's large-scale air strikes on Iran, neither side has shown much staying power. Both have shifted to a "harassment" mode, from the initial intense combat to now mainly trying to assert their presence. Essentially, Iran is in a more difficult position, while Israel appears to be holding its ground.

How can we prove this? Recently, many Israeli media outlets have woken up from their initial excitement about attacking Iran and have started to question the situation. For example, Haaretz published two articles: "Israel's Goals in Iran Are Elusive, and the Endgame Is Unclear. What's Next?" and "Bombs Falling from Tehran to Tel Aviv. Netanyahu's So-Called Victory Feels Like a Collapse."

To sum up, despite the seemingly favorable situation for Israel and the dire conditions for Iran, neither side has much stamina left. They are both gasping for breath. But Israel can't stop, because if it does, not only will Netanyahu's future be uncertain, but Israel's path ahead will also be unpredictable. Iran can't stop either, because domestic sentiment won't allow it. They have to grit their teeth and keep fighting, even if it means conserving resources. The Middle East conflict is now heading towards a situation where two exhausted parties continue to fight each other. What will happen next is really hard to say. This is also why outsiders see opportunities to enter this fertile region. But remember, the last one to join will likely be the ultimate winner, especially with the world's most powerful industrial system and production capacity as a backup. The key is to wait.