Initial Speculation on the June 7 Downing of a Russian Su-35

On June 7, a Russian Su-35 was lost near Kursk. Russia hasn't commented on why. Theories include:

1. It was shot down by an F-16, possibly using similar tactics to the 57 dogfight.

2. It was hit by a Patriot missile.

3. It was mistakenly targeted by Russian air defenses.

Looking at the evidence:

1. The plane was flying south.

Given the time (morning) and sun position, it was likely in combat. Another Su-35 was previously hit by friendly fire while returning without its electronic warfare system on.

2. The crash video shows the plane hit the ground flat with little sliding. This suggests engine failure with the flight control system maintaining level flight until impact. This means no evasive maneuvers were being performed when the pilot ejected.

3. The plane's control surfaces are mostly intact.

The left wing shows burn marks, not major damage. The front fuselage is charred, but the cockpit wasn't severely damaged (the pilot ejected). It appears a small warhead (possibly fragmentation) penetrated the upper fuel tank, causing a fire.

If the attack had come from below, the fire damage would look different.

4. The rescue helicopter was focused on the pilot, suggesting the pilot landed near the wreckage. Given the smoke plume and wind conditions (over 12 knots), the pilot must have ejected at a relatively low altitude. This implies the plane was flying at medium to low altitude when hit.

Putting it all together: The Su-35 was likely in combat at medium to low altitude when it was suddenly attacked from above by a small fragmentation warhead that ignited the upper fuel tank. The pilot ejected, the engine shut down, and the flight control system kept the plane level until it hit the ground.

Given the factors of combat status, no warning, attack from above, and small warhead size, ground-based air defense systems are unlikely to be responsible. This points to an F-16 with AIM-120. The AIM-120C5 can engage high-trajectory targets. Since August 24, AIM-120C5s have been delivered with F-16AM/BM Block 20 MLUs. However, the AN/APG-66(V)2 radar on the F-16 MLU is a Doppler system, making it difficult to achieve a no-warning kill on an Su-35 in combat without assistance. This could involve the Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft delivered in April 2025, which can provide mid-course guidance for AIM-120 via Link 16.

So, the most plausible scenario is that the Su-35 was downed by a coordinated engagement involving the Saab 340, F-16 MLU, and AIM-120. As for who operated these systems, that's fairly obvious.