Iran’s Predicament: A Self-Inflicted Quagmire

Iran is a classic case of a country that seems to always miss the mark. It has abundant resources, courage, and capabilities, yet it often fails to seize the right opportunities. Faced with a deadly adversary, it clings to illusions even when there is no hope in sight. At critical junctures that determine its fate, it neglects the primary task of improving governance and the quality of life for its people, despite being in a precarious situation both internally and externally. Thus, it is no surprise that it ends up suffering losses. The recent preemptive strikes by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities are a long-planned “gray rhino” event.

The smoke rising from the nuclear facilities indicates that, fortunately, there has been no nuclear leakage. The plumes suggest that the explosions were caused by aerial bombs dropped by fighter jets or drones, similar to those used in Gaza. This implies that Iran’s air defense system failed to play a significant role, and it is likely that stealth aircraft managed to breach their defenses.

The residential buildings that were hit housed important Iranian political figures and scientists who were targeted in this decapitation strike. We had noticed unusual movements in the gold market yesterday, hinting at impending action. Today, the surge in oil prices confirms that the international market was previously unaware. The operation was highly secretive, known only to a select few at the highest levels. One wonders if the United States was aware. Of course, they were. Otherwise, why did they recently send so many air defense missiles to the Middle East, including to Israel?

According to a June 6 report by the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is reallocating fuses from air defense missile systems originally intended for Ukraine to the U.S. Air Force stationed in the Middle East. The Journal states, “Last week, the Pentagon quietly notified Congress that the fuses for the ground-based missiles that Ukraine uses to destroy Russian drones will now be sent to U.S. Air Force units in the Middle East.”

Iran had advance warning but its tough rhetoric proved futile in deterring Israel’s actions. The losses are substantial.

However, retaliation is reportedly underway, despite rumors suggesting otherwise.

It remains unclear whether nuclear facilities have been targeted, as misinformation is rampant and everything needs to be verified.

Israel’s first round targeted command centers, the second round aimed at air force bases, and subsequent rounds will focus on nuclear and missile facilities. This is not a one-time event but is expected to continue over several days. The intention to strike nuclear facilities has long existed; it was just a matter of timing. Now that Israel has weakened Hezbollah and Hamas, it is unlikely to back down easily.

Iran, on the other hand, is still engaging in negotiations with the United States. What a waste of time! As soon as the conflict began, Rubio immediately claimed that the U.S. had no involvement. Some experts even suggested that Israel’s attack was intended to sabotage peace talks. How naive! The U.S. and Israel are essentially on the same page.

Iran’s fate is ultimately in its own hands. If it had aligned itself with Belarus or North Korea, it could have secured Russia’s nuclear protection or developed its own nuclear capabilities. Instead, it has been relying on the U.S., which is a futile strategy. If Iran had purchased more advanced weaponry from China, like Serbia did, the situation might be different. This is the consequence of its indecisiveness.

In 2022, foreign media reported that Iran was in talks with China to purchase the J-10C fighter jet. In 2023, Iran’s air force commander confirmed that the country was evaluating several foreign aircraft for modernization, but the J-10C was not explicitly mentioned. In 2024, a large delegation led by Iran’s air force commander, Brigadier General Vahidi, attended the Zhuhai Airshow in China, where he personally assessed the J-10C. But there has been no further progress since then.

Whether it is Trump or Biden, the U.S., the U.K., or France, none of them can be truly relied upon. The current U.S. stance of non-intervention is partly due to a reluctance to get directly involved, but also because they are content to see the conflict continue, as it helps stabilize the value of the dollar.

If Iran cannot make the basic strategic judgment of who its friends and enemies are, it is bound to suffer. Isn’t this just reaping what it has sown? The Houthi forces, for example, have strong internal cohesion and have managed to hold their ground despite U.S. pressure. After the U.S. lost three aircraft, they had no choice but to sign an agreement.

This time, if Iran does not wake up and fight with all its might, the outcome could be catastrophic, and even the Supreme Leader might not be safe. Meanwhile, Israel is also being shortsighted. Assassinations alone cannot solve problems; they only lead to more retaliation. Killing one person only inspires thousands more to rise up. Israel’s actions will not bring peace; they will only provoke more resistance.

Biden wisely warned Netanyahu not to attack Iran, but Trump’s return to power has given Israel a false sense of opportunity. Their impulsiveness will not yield good results. Iran is not a country that can be easily defeated by bombing alone. If Iran shows even a fraction of the Houthi forces’ courage, Israel will face significant losses.

We will have to see whether Iran will target U.S. military bases or Israel’s nuclear facilities. If the conflict escalates and the U.S. gets involved, it will be a different story.

This reminds me of the trade war we faced. There were plenty of so-called experts and elites in our country who were terrified, but after a few months, we proved them wrong with victory after victory. Trump’s extreme reactions only demonstrated his respect for China.

If we were as indecisive as Iran, we would deserve to fail. There is a saying that those who are pitiable must have done something detestable. We should abandon the urge to help and respect Iran’s fate.

We are not living in a peaceful era, but in a peaceful country. As the great changes unseen in a century accelerate, we will increasingly appreciate the value of this stability.