Today’s article serves as a supplement to yesterday’s in-depth piece and addresses a frequently asked question: If the US becomes extremely frustrated or feels hopeless about the future, would it dare to initiate a third world war (S3)? (For more context, see yesterday’s article: “The Grand Changes Have Begun”)
Let’s get straight to the point: It’s simply impossible!
Why?
First, let’s look at the broader economic landscape. Many of you might recall that about a decade ago, we proposed the “Made in China 2025” initiative. At the time, it was met with widespread ridicule, especially from those who had studied in Europe and the US.
Fast forward to today:
Now, even the most irritating media outlets, like The Economist, and a host of American publications, have acknowledged our success. Almost all the goals set at that time have been achieved.
But these media outlets added a “but”: They claimed that out of our 40-plus goals, two have not been realized—semiconductors and large aircraft. They spoke too soon. In fact, we have already made breakthroughs in these areas.
What does this mean?
It’s common sense: A country’s industrial capabilities inevitably influence its military strength in two dimensions: capacity and quality.
What is capacity?
Take the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as an example. At the beginning, many people thought this war would be a high-tech conflict. But as it progressed, it turned out to be more like World War I—ultimately, it became a battle of industrial capacity, especially in terms of who had more artillery shells.
NATO, with its combined nominal GDP over 30 times that of Russia, still found itself at a disadvantage. If Ukraine could only fire one shell per day, Russia could fire four. Russia’s industrial capacity far exceeded the total of NATO.
Why did Trump keep saying that the war couldn’t continue?
Because the combined industrial capacity of Europe and America was insufficient. Even The Wall Street Journal admitted that the war had been a tough fight for the entire NATO alliance.
At this point, you might think Russia’s industrial capacity is already quite formidable. But the answer is: No!
Because there is an even bigger player than Russia.
Who is it?
Us!
Where do we excel?
Primarily in two areas:
One is our strong industrial capacity.
Many people may not know that from the 1950s to the 1990s, during the Cold War, countries actually stockpiled a large number of artillery shells and other strategic materials in preparation for a potential S3. This is called Cold War stockpiling, and the quantities were enormous.
wereWho the main stockpiling countries at that time?
The United States, the Soviet Union, and us.
The US had a significant Cold War stockpile, but decades of continuous warfare—20 years of the Afghan and Iraq wars, followed by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—have almost completely depleted its reserves.
What about Russia?
The Soviet Union’s Cold War stockpile was divided among its successor states, and Russia only inherited a portion. After the dissolution, it sold off a significant amount for profit. After three years of the Russia-Ukraine war, its stockpile is also nearly exhausted.
Among the major powers, who still has Cold War stockpiles?
Naturally, it’s the country that hasn’t fought a war in over 40 years—us!
This is a fire-fighting tank. We had so many Type 59 tanks that we had to find creative ways to repurpose them...
The other area where we excel is our strong temporary production capacity.
How strong is it?
Internationally, it is widely believed that if we were to ramp up production like Russia, our artillery shell capacity alone would be ten times that of Russia.
This is supported by data.
Statistics show that although our manufacturing workforce has declined somewhat, it still stands at 162 million people—a staggering number!
In contrast, the entire Western bloc, including Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea, only has a combined total of 60 million people—less than half of ours!
Another statistic reveals that 21% of our manufacturing industries can be converted to military use at any time, such as certain chemical and electrical industries.
What does this mean?
If you try to compete with us in stockpiles, our Cold War-era reserves will overwhelm you. If you try to compete with us in temporary production capacity, we will still crush you!
The other aspect is our high quality.
As I mentioned yesterday:
Does the US have hypersonic missiles?
Yes, but they are inconsistent in performance!
Does the US have the technology to intercept such missiles?
No!
Does the US have the YJ-21, a missile capable of striking aircraft carriers outside their defense perimeter?
No!
Our sixth-generation fighter jets keep making headlines in videos. Does the US have them?
Yes, but they are still in the conceptual stage...
Moreover, many of our most advanced weapons have been developed within the last decade.
What about the US?
Many of their weapons were built in the 1980s and 1990s!
They are already 30 to 40 years old!
Not only is there a shortage in quantity, but there is also a significant technological gap!
US destroyers are not only outdated but also equipped with poor-performing, legacy “clothesline” radar systems.
By now, it should be clear: Given the current state of its capabilities, would the US dare to wage a third world war against us?
Absolutely not!
In fact, it is more likely that, given our industrial strength, we could force the US into such a conflict...
As long as we are not the ones to initiate it, no one else will dare to either!
So, stop worrying about such things and focus on making money for ourselves!
评论
发表评论