The power struggle and geopolitical undercurrents behind the sudden downfall of Mongolia's post-80s prime minister

A political earthquake triggered by a lavish proposal video shook Mongolia, a strategic area sandwiched between China and Russia. When public anger erupted like a volcano and the parliament was in sharp confrontation, the downfall of Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene foreshadowed a major political restructuring and geopolitical shift in the vast Mongolian grasslands.

On June 3, 2025, the protest echoes in Ulaanbaatar's Sükhbaatar Square had not yet faded when Mongolia's State Great Khural (parliament) was already in fierce contention. In this historic moment of national destiny, 44 votes in favor, 38 against, and 44 abstentions — these cold numbers marked not only the end of the millennial Prime Minister's political career but also a deep reshaping of the strategic region's political landscape.

From Absolute Advantage to Desertion

The fall of Oyun-Erdene was one of the most dramatic power collapses in modern political history. Just 11 months earlier, this 45-year-old political rising star was re-elected Prime Minister with an overwhelming advantage. In the 2024 parliamentary elections, the Mongolia People's Party (MPP), though with a narrower margin, remained the largest party with 68 out of 126 seats.

Graph: Distribution of seats in the State Great Hural of Mongolia in 2024: The People's Party holds a narrow majority in power.

But politics is like a chess game, where one misstep can ruin the entire game. When the confidential voting box for the vote of confidence was opened, the harsh reality shattered all illusions. Facing the threshold of 64 votes needed to pass, Oyun-Erdene garnered only 44 votes, falling short by a staggering 20. With the MPP holding 68 seats, a significant number of ruling party members chose to betray or remain silent.

Photo: Oyun-Erdene's confidence vote ends in a crushing defeat: 44 votes in support fall far short of the 64-vote threshold.

This vote distribution revealed the brutal truth of Mongolia's political power struggles. When politics becomes a liability for the party, even the most steadfast allies quickly disassociate to protect greater political interests. The tripartite division of 44 votes in favor, 38 against, and 44 abstentions not only marked the end of Oyun-Erdene's personal political career but also signaled a profound adjustment in Mongolia's political ecosystem.

Spark and Deep-seated Contradictions: corruption scandals ignite public outrage

On the surface, Oyun-Erdene's fall was triggered by a wealth-flaunting proposal video of his 23-year-old son. Helicopter tours, expensive diamond rings, designer handbags, luxury cars — these luxury items, far beyond the normal income of a civil servant's family, spread like wildfire on social media, instantly igniting the long-suppressed anger of the Mongolian people.

But beneath the surface, there lies a more complex web of political and economic contradictions. According to data from Transparency International, Mongolia's Corruption Perceptions Index has declined from 38 points in 2019 to 33 points in 2024, with its global ranking dropping from 112th to 121st. These cold numbers reflect the country's comprehensive regression on the path of anti-corruption.

Graph: The integrity index of Mongolia has been deteriorating continuously: the score has dropped from 38 points to 33 points, and its ranking has fallen to 121st.

The eruption of public outrage in Mongolia was by no means accidental. With inflation soaring above 9%, 28% of the population still struggling below the poverty line, and approximately 100,000 people earning only 60 Chinese yuan per day, the luxurious lifestyle of the Prime Minister's family was akin to rubbing salt into the wounds of the people.Over 59,000 people signed a petition, and daily protests were held in the city center of the Mongolian capital. 

Graph: The family corruption scandal became the final straw that broke the camel's back: accounting for 30% of the causes of the crisis.

Alliance Breakdown and Intra-party Power Struggles

Politics is never a simple matter of right and wrong but rather a complex balancing of interests. The collapse of the Oyun-Erdene government was more like a meticulously orchestrated political drama, with all parties carefully calculating for their own maximum benefit.

After the 2024 elections, in pursuit of political stability, Oyun-Erdene formed a supra-partisan coalition government comprising the MPP, the Democratic Party, and the National Labor Party. This seemingly wise political arrangement became his fatal weakness at a critical moment.

As public protests intensified, the Democratic Party decisively sided with the people, openly supporting the protesters' demands. On May 21, 2025, the MPP angrily expelled the Democratic Party from the coalition government, accusing it of being the mastermind behind the scenes for "violating the alliance agreement." This decision, though seemingly tough, in fact exposed the fragile foundation of the ruling coalition.

More subtly, there were power struggles within the MPP. In the 2024 election nominations, Oyun-Erdene dominated the candidate list, with many heavyweight veterans failing to secure reappointment and young protégés taking the majority. While this personnel layout consolidated the Prime Minister's personal power, it also meant that when his reputation was damaged, there was a lack of influential voices within the party to provide balance. The "betrayal" of some MPP members in the confidential vote was a concentrated eruption of these intra-party contradictions.

Successor Struggles: Delicate Power Transitions

The political stage is never short of the next leading actors. As Oyun-Erdene stepped down, the competition for his successor was already under way.

Dahizayaagiin Amarbayar, the current Chair of the State Great Khural of Mongolia and a 44-year-old veteran, is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Known as the party's "mastermind," he orchestrated the MPP's election victories in 2016 and 2020 and enjoys remarkable prestige within the party. More importantly, he has good relations with both Oyun-Erdene and President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh and is regarded as a "Political Mozart" capable of maneuvering among various party factions.

Graph: Amrabayasgelen has the highest chance of winning: The current speaker has an 80% probability of taking over as prime minister.

While he has indicated no intention to become Prime Minister, not wanting to harm personal friendships through a power grab, he may have "no choice" but to step forward in the current crisis. His advocacy for the "Three Perfections of Parliament" reform理念 shows his determination to rebuild public trust by strengthening parliamentary systems.

Despite her extensive government experience, Vice Premier Amarsaikhan's chances of succession have been greatly reduced due to her involvement in the crisis. As for the opposition Democratic Party, although it has increased its seats, its non-majority party status and internal divisions make it highly unlikely to produce a Prime Minister.

Geopolitical Undercurrents: Strategic Pivot in Great Power Competition

Mongolia's political turmoil is far more than just an internal affair of a landlocked country. As a strategic area connecting China and Russia, every political upheaval in Mongolia sends ripples across the geopolitical chessboard.

The fall of Oyun-Erdene occurred at a critical time of deep adjustment in the international landscape. Mongolia's long-standing foreign policy of maintaining a balance between China and Russia while developing relations with the United States, Japan, Europe, and other "Third Neighboring Countries" needs to be re-evaluated in the new political reality.

Graph: China and Russia remain Mongolia's most important strategic partners: Their economic dependence and political influence far exceed those of the third neighboring country.

Economic data starkly reflects the constraints of geopolitical reality. Energy supplies from Russia meet 92% of Mongolia's energy needs, and the China-Russia natural gas pipeline project transiting through Mongolia is advancing. Under this highly interdependent economic structure, any political change must take into account the realities of geopolitics.

The new Mongolian government is expected to maintain basic continuity in its foreign policy. However, it may make some adjustments in specific operations. How to maintain traditional friendly relations with China and Russia while continuing to advance the balanced development of the "Third Neighboring Countries" policy will be a major challenge for the new Prime Minister of Mongolia.