Impressive, China Has Received the Notification: Has Trump Had to Bow Down?

 

I. The U.S. Resumes Exports, and China Has Received the Notification

Recently, citing informed sources, American media reported that relevant companies have received notifications from the U.S. Department of Commerce to resume exports of products such as chip design software, ethane, and aircraft engines to China.

It is worth noting that the Ministry of Commerce responded by stating that following the London economic and trade talks between China and the United States, both sides have recently confirmed the specific details for implementing the important consensus reached during the June 5 phone call between the two heads of state and consolidating the outcomes of the Geneva economic and trade talks. Currently, both teams are working intensively to implement the results of the London framework. China is approving export license applications for controlled items that meet the conditions in accordance with the law and regulations. The U.S. has also taken corresponding actions, canceling a series of restrictive measures against China, and has notified China of the relevant developments.

The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce also emphasized that the London framework was hard-won and that dialogue and cooperation are the right path, while coercion and blackmail have no future. The United States is urged to deeply recognize the mutually beneficial nature of China-U.S. economic and trade relations, continue to move in the same direction as China, further correct its erroneous practices, and take concrete actions to maintain and implement the important consensus reached during the phone call between the two heads of state, jointly promoting the stable and long-term development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations.

Since things have reached this point, let's take a look at this year's "balance sheet."

In the first half of the year, the United States has been constantly making small moves in the economic and trade field: setting up barriers for chip design software, restricting the export of ethane, and imposing restrictions on aircraft engines. It is clear to everyone with eyes that these actions are aimed at throttling China in key industrial areas.

However, the situation has now changed dramatically: the restrictions have been quietly lifted, and the frozen supply chain has been restarted.

This is clearly not a change of heart on the part of the United States, but rather a balancing move chosen after a game of strategic maneuvering.

II. Impressive, a Precise Stranglehold

In this contest, there is an inescapable keyword: rare earth elements.

The importance of rare earth elements is well understood by the United States. From the engines of F-35 fighter jets to the chips in precision-guided weapons, from the permanent magnet motors in new energy vehicles to the displays in smartphones, almost all high-tech industries rely on rare earth elements.

China holds over 90% of the world's rare earth processing capacity, which means that the lifeline of the United States' high-tech industry is in our hands.

At the end of last year, China's revised "Rare Earth Management Regulations" were officially implemented, further strengthening control over the mining, processing, and export of rare earth elements. This "soft knife" hurts more than an increase in tariffs.

The data from the U.S. Department of Commerce speaks for itself: in the first quarter of this year, the U.S. rare earth inventory decreased by 37% year-on-year, and many defense companies have issued warnings that key components may face production halts due to a lack of rare earth elements.

An internal Pentagon report stated bluntly: "If China restricts the export of rare earth elements, the production of U.S. military equipment will be paralyzed within six months."

This kind of pain has forced the usually arrogant United States to rethink its position.

Looking at the list of resumed exports this time, it is clear that there is a sense of "exchange." In the field of chip design software, the three major U.S. suppliers saw their revenue from China plummet by 40% in the first quarter, with their stock market value evaporating by over 100 billion dollars. Ethane exporters are in an even worse situation, with ethane storage tanks in Texas piling up and companies losing over 2 million dollars a day. General Electric's aircraft engine division is also in a hurry, as the order for over a thousand C919 aircraft from China's COMAC means that if they miss out on the opportunity to supply, they could face losses of over 50 billion dollars in the next decade.

Lobbyists from these companies have worn out the thresholds of Capitol Hill, essentially a reaction to the pain inflicted by the Chinese market and the rare earth card.

The spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said, "The London framework was hard-won, and coercion has no future," which reveals the essence of this contest.

Over the past few years, the United States has always tried to force China to make concessions by "choking" it, but they forgot that China has a "trump card" like rare earth elements and the confidence to "see it through to the end." From revising the export control list to establishing a rare earth industry alliance, from promoting the development of rare earth alternative technologies to expanding international cooperation, every move has been precise and effective.

American media said this is a "signal of easing in Sino-U.S. relations," but this statement is only half right. Easing is true, but the initiative is in our hands.

The U.S. Department of Commerce's notification hides a sense of unease — every item on the list is something U.S. companies are eager to sell to China; every cancellation of restrictions corresponds to the effectiveness of China's countermeasures. Just as the rare earth contest has proven: whoever holds the core resources and maintains the market confidence will stand more firmly in the game.

Of course, we must also be clear: this is only a phased achievement. The U.S. Department of Commerce's document still leaves a loophole, "reserving the right to re-implement restrictions at any time." This precisely shows that dealing with such an opponent, there can be no relaxation at all.

To conclude, the United States' concession this time is simply a recognition of a reality: China is not a pushover, but a capable and strategic opponent who can both fight and negotiate.

At the same time, it is also necessary for us to make it clear to the other side: cooperation is mutually beneficial, confrontation is costly, and only through win-win cooperation can there be true durability.