跳至主要内容

A Storm Is Looming on the Horizon


Today, I spent a good part of the day catching up on the news, and there was one particularly interesting piece that caught my eye.

In the first quarter of 2025, the initial estimate for the U.S. GDP growth rate came in at -0.3%, below the expected +0.3%. This number is significant because it marks the lowest GDP growth rate since the second quarter of 2022 and the first negative figure since then. Previous dips into negative territory were largely due to the pandemic. This suggests that the U.S. economy is already starting to contract—a storm is brewing on the horizon.
But other than that, there’s not much else worth mentioning.
As I’ve explained before, during Biden’s four years in office, even though things often went wrong, there was still a certain structure and predictability to their actions. They followed a playbook, even if it wasn’t always successful.
But with Trump back in the White House, it’s like all the rules have gone out the window. It’s total chaos—actions are taken on a whim, without any real strategy.
It feels a bit like watching a sports match. Before, even if the performance wasn’t great, it was at least at a provincial or municipal level. Now, it’s like a free-for-all, with people who don’t even understand the basics stepping onto the field. It’s not even at a village level anymore.
To be honest, it’s really hard to write about this administration. Their actions are so erratic that it’s difficult to make sense of them.
I’ll leave it at that for today. There’s not much more to say about this situation.

评论

此博客中的热门博文

Operation Web: Ukraine's Intelligence Penetration of Russia

At 1 a.m. on June 1, 2025, alarms blared at Russian bomber bases. "Operation Web," 18 months in the making, was underway across five time zones. One hundred and seventeen small drones emerged from hidden wooden sheds in trucks, targeting Russia's prized strategic assets. This was more than a military strike. It was a textbook example of modern intelligence warfare. Ukraine used open-source intelligence (OSINT), human intelligence (HUMINT), and signals intelligence (SIGINT) to create a deadly network deep behind enemy lines. From the Arctic Circle near Murmansk to the Belaya base in Siberia, Ukrainian agents had been quietly lurking under the FSB's nose. Using commercial drones, they targeted a $7 billion strategic bomber fleet. This operation redefined asymmetric warfare and exposed the structural weaknesses of traditional intelligence defense systems. 18 Months of Infiltration and Planning The success of Operation Web was rooted in 18 months of careful preparation an...

Open-Source Intelligence Analysis of the 2025 India-Pakistan Military Standoff

  In the recent India-Pakistan standoff, open-source intelligence (OSINT) channels have played an extremely important role in information dissemination and intelligence analysis. Various open-source platforms, including social media, commercial satellite imagery, vessel and aviation tracking data, news reports, and military forums, have collectively formed a "second front" for battlefield situational awareness, helping all parties to promptly understand and verify the dynamics of the conflict. However, the reliability of different OSINT channels varies, and it is necessary to cross-reference them to obtain the most accurate intelligence possible. Below is an analysis of the main channels: Social Media (Twitter/X, Facebook, etc.) Social media platforms are among the fastest sources for disseminating information about the conflict. A large number of first-hand witnesses, journalists, and even soldiers post photos, videos, and written reports through social media. For example, r...

Will S. Korea Join the Fray if China Crosses the Taiwan Strait? Lee Jae-myung’s Response Is Quite Sensible

On the eve of South Korea’s presidential election, American media jumped into the arena to stir up China-related issues. On May 29, Lee Jae-myung, a presidential candidate, was interviewed by US Time Magazine. During the interview, a US journalist asked a question: If the Chinese mainland uses force to recover Taiwan, will South Korea help Taiwan? The US journalist’s question was malicious. During the election period, South Korea’s far right deliberately fanned up various anti-China public opinions. US media’s involvement was apparently to fan the flames. However, Lee Jae-myung’s response was quite sensible. He said, “I will consider the answer to this question when aliens invade the earth.” This implies that South Korea will not help Taiwan, and he will never consider this matter. Moreover, the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair, concerning China’s core interests. It does not allow any external interference and has nothing to do with South Korea. On this point, Lee Jae-myung is...