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Forensic Analysis of India-Pakistan Air Combat Footage


**Verifying the Air Combat Results of the India-Pakistan Conflict**

I'm exhausted! I spent hours poring over this nearly 20-minute video, and I'm feeling pretty dizzy. There are just too many contradictions and ambiguities, so I can only do my best to sort them out. If I get anything wrong, please bear with me!

First, let's look at the radar dome shown in the title image. 

We can rule out the Rafale, as its radar dome is much shorter and the shape doesn't match the debris in the image. We can also rule out the JF-17 Thunder (which some Indians claimed was the wreckage) because its radar dome isn't that elongated.

Second, the Central Police Force? 




The helmet and the modified AK-47 look more like those used by the Indian Central Reserve Police Force deployed along the border.

Third, the slogan. 

It appears to be something like "EASY LEARNING. CHALLENGE YOURSELF." Such slogans are typically found in schools. The question is, whose school is it? Given Pakistan's current policy of promoting Urdu as the primary language, with English being important but not dominant, school slogans would likely be in Urdu. For example:

From this perspective, it's more likely to be an Indian school (which further rules out the JF-17).

Fourth, the engine.


The lighting and angle make it difficult to identify the specific model. However, the spinner is quite visible here. Let's compare:

- M88


- M53



- RD33


- AL31FP

Given the evidence, we can rule out the French engines. That leaves us with the RD33 and AL31FP, narrowing down the possibilities to the MiG-29 and Su-30MKI.

Fifth, the main landing gear.



The tire has completely burned off, leaving only the bare wheel hub. The Su-27/30's main landing gear has an offset torque arm design, while the MiG-29's is symmetrical. This model provides a clearer view of the details:


This is the Su-27's.



Notice that the landing gear is actually in the down position (the plane is upside down), so this should be the left main landing gear. However, the direction of the left main gear doesn't match the direction of the engine, which is the most puzzling part for me. Considering the firefighter standing in front of a tree without any collision marks on the side facing the camera, I suspect the plane hit the tree from behind and then rotated around it, throwing the left side of the fuselage over (the right side is probably completely destroyed).

Based on the above analysis, this wreckage is likely from an Su-30MKI.

From this, we can further speculate:

1. **Landing gear down**  

   This suggests the plane was in the approach phase. Either it was damaged and preparing for an emergency landing, or it was returning to base and got ambushed without warning.

2. **Upside-down attitude**  

   This usually happens when both engines fail, and the plane stalls below stall speed with one wing stalling first, causing the plane to flip. Whether the pilot could have ejected safely in this position is questionable.

3. **Crash location**  

   Given the timely arrival of firefighters (the fire hadn't been extinguished yet) and the presence of what appears to be school buildings, the crash site is likely near a town. Combined with the fact that the landing gear was down, it should be within 10 kilometers of a base.

Considering the range of the PL-15 and the proximity to the India-Pakistan border, there is only one base that fits this description: the Adampur Air Force Base, which is less than 150 kilometers from the Kashmir front line and was recently designated as the permanent base for the Su-30MKI.



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