Just now, the Americans have belatedly discovered the most alarming fact.

 

Recently, American media reported that the weapons currently used by the U.S. military have 80,000 components made from antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten, or tellurium. The global supply of these minerals is dominated by China. “This means that nearly 78% of the weapon systems could be affected,” the media said. The recent Chinese export bans and restrictions on critical minerals have exposed an open secret: Despite political rhetoric, important parts of the U.S. weapon systems are fundamentally dependent on China. How to put it? The Americans are really slow to realize this. We announced export controls on gallium and germanium in August 2023, on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium in February 2024, and on antimony in August 2024. The earliest one has been in place for almost two years, and the others for at least half a year! Yet they are only starting to panic now! By the way, these critical mineral elements are crucial for manufacturing military equipment across all branches of the military, but the impact on the different branches of the U.S. military varies. The Marine Corps is less affected, at about 61.7%, while the Navy is hit hard: 91.6%. This means that if we persist with the export controls, the U.S. Navy, which the Americans are so proud of, will gradually deteriorate in the future because the relevant refining industries cannot keep up.

How significant is the impact on Americans? Let's take a recent example: On March 21, the rusting USS Nimitz set sail from Bremerton Port in Washington State. The sailors on board were well aware that this was the old ship's “swan song.” This 100,000-ton giant, which was commissioned in 1975 and participated in major military operations such as the Gulf War and the Iraq War, is now having to execute its last deployment to the Western Pacific with its aging body. Just a few days before its departure, the Pentagon announced that the Nimitz would officially begin its decommissioning process early next year, which usually lasts 30 months. During this period, the Nimitz will no longer be considered a combat-ready vessel. The U.S. military's move was out of sheer necessity: The USS Carl Vinson, originally stationed in the Western Pacific, was urgently diverted to the Red Sea to deal with the Houthi forces, and its replacement, the USS George Washington, was stranded in Japan due to technical failures. In this situation, the Pentagon had no choice but to send the Nimitz out despite its condition: The F-18 Super Hornets on board have an average age of 15 years, and the steam catapults have a failure rate 40% higher than those on new carriers. The USS Nimitz is now so old that it has to be retired. Does the U.S. have a successor? The Americans say yes: The second ship of the Ford-class carriers, the USS Kennedy, can take over. But that's just talk. Delays in the commissioning of U.S. Navy vessels have become commonplace.

However, we must be honest here. If we look at the export controls on critical minerals to the U.S. in isolation, they may not have as big an impact as many people imagine. But the problem the U.S. is facing now is not isolated; it is systemic. A report from the U.S. Department of Defense shows that over the past 20 years, more than $2 trillion invested by the U.S. military in weapon development has largely been wasted: The F-35 fighter jet project has overspent by $163 billion; the Ford-class carriers have had frequent malfunctions since their commissioning; and the “Sentinel” intercontinental missile project had to be abandoned. Why is that? First, the U.S. military-industrial complex is extremely greedy. They take the money without doing much work, and even when they do, the quality is poor. Second, the long-term “deindustrialization” policy has caused the U.S. domestic manufacturing industry to shrink continuously, and the cultivation of science and engineering talents in the U.S. has been severely affected. Now, the proportion of science and engineering talents in the U.S. is less than 15%, which is far behind other developed countries. Moreover, even if such talents are produced, most of them choose to flow into high-paying industries like finance and the Internet, rather than military enterprises. How to put it? Our export controls should not have such a significant impact if the U.S. were normal. But the U.S. has long had a systemic illness, and it has reached a critical point. So, our move may well be the last straw that breaks the camel's back! The ultimate support of an empire is its military power. Without military power, it will no longer be an empire. In the end, we still have to sigh: When fortune smiles, all things work together for good; when fortune frowns, even heroes are not free!