Today, I’ll keep it short. As I mentioned before, May 12th was the date of the Philippines’ mid-term elections. This election was of great significance as it would determine the future direction of the Philippines and the fate of the Duterte and Marcos families.
Why was this the case? Firstly, the scale of the election was enormous. Almost all provincial and municipal leaders across the Philippines were up for re-election. Additionally, the entire House of Representatives was up for re-election, and half of the Senate, which is 12 seats, was also being contested.
So, what were the results of this election? To sum it up, the situation looks very unfavorable for Marcos Jr., to the extent that it can be described as a “crushing defeat.” Let’s look at two key areas.
Firstly, there was the election in Davao City, the stronghold of the Duterte family. Marcos Jr. had sent his strongest lineup, hoping to overthrow the Duterte family’s 34-year dominance in Davao City.
However, it appears that Marcos Jr. failed in this regard. Duterte himself, currently in The Hague, Netherlands, ran for mayor of Davao City. Marcos Jr.’s strongest card was Carlo Nograles.
Carlo Nograles is quite an interesting figure. He used to be a Duterte loyalist, serving as the Cabinet Secretary of Duterte’s administration from 2018 to 2022, and later appointed as the head of the Civil Service Commission by Duterte.
But after the Duterte family was targeted by Marcos Jr., Nograles “defected.” This time, he ran as an independent candidate, directly challenging Duterte in Davao City.
As for why he ran as an independent candidate, those who are in the know understand. Duterte’s situation has caused a significant stir in Philippine society. If it were openly stated that he had Marcos Jr.’s support, he would likely not have been elected.
In this plot, Marcos Jr. did not succeed. Davao City’s current news indicates that although Duterte is in The Hague, his supporters remain. He won the mayoral position with more than eight times the votes of Nograles.
Of course, even if he is elected, he cannot return to take up the position of mayor. Therefore, his son, Sebastian, will serve as the acting mayor.
Secondly, there is the Senate election, which is the core of the current contest between the two sides.
Why is that?
I explained this a while ago: According to the Philippine Constitution, if a public official is impeached by Congress, that person will lose the possibility of running for public office in the future.
Duterte’s daughter, who is also the Vice President of the Philippines, Sara, was recently targeted by Marcos Jr. for impeachment. The House of Representatives has already passed it, and now only the Senate remains. If the Senate passes it with a two-thirds majority, Sara will not be able to run in 2028, and the Duterte family will be severely weakened.
So, to prevent this impeachment from passing, the Duterte family needs at least nine votes to get through. Moreover, given Sara’s current support rate, which far exceeds that of Marcos Jr., if there are no major surprises, 2028 will likely be hers.
The final results of this Senate election have not been found yet, but from the current situation, it looks very good. Five people allied with the Duterte family have made it into the top 12, with a good chance of being elected, ranking 1st, 3rd, 6th, 11th, and 12th respectively.
There is also Aquino IV, who, although not allied with the Duterte family, has a deep-seated grudge against the Marcos family, currently ranking 2nd among the top 12. Additionally, there is another individual who is unlikely to side with Marcos Jr.
From the current situation, it seems that Marcos Jr. may only be able to secure five seats. This is a far cry from their pre-election boasts of definitely taking 10 seats, leaving the Duterte side with only two.
Among the 12 senators who were not up for re-election, several still support the Duterte family. According to the current results, the impeachment case against Duterte’s daughter is likely to fail after this mid-term election. She will thus obtain the ticket for 2028, and her victory in 2028 should be a done deal.
At that time, for Marcos Jr., there will probably only be two options left: one is to stay in the country and face a reckoning; the other is to follow in his father’s footsteps and go into exile once again.
In conclusion, the current situation can be attributed to Duterte’s decision to personally get involved. Before he was taken to The Hague, his family was being suppressed by Marcos Jr. However, after he got involved, the situation changed dramatically. His faction began to turn the tables and regain the upper hand. Although the final results have not yet been fully announced, it can be almost certain that Duterte has won this high-stakes gamble. With his personal involvement, he has managed to change the entire political landscape.
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