The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is growing increasingly dire.
Despite the heavy toll that Iranian missile strikes have taken on Israel, the Israeli Air Force now operates with impunity over Iranian territory, striking targets at will. This stark reality underscores the fact that Iran's air defense has been effectively dismantled.
However, the Israeli Air Force's long-range sorties into Iran, coupled with the damage inflicted by Iranian hypersonic missiles on Israel's strategic assets, have taken a significant toll. If this conflict drags on, Israel will undoubtedly face a dire situation.
This is precisely why Israel has not spared even targets like Iran's national television and foreign ministry, launching indiscriminate bombing campaigns. Moreover, Prime Minister Netanyahu's recent threats to eliminate Khamenei signal a growing sense of desperation and a willingness to take extreme measures.
We have seen that China, Russia, and several other countries have announced emergency evacuations of their citizens from both Israel and Iran. The US has also declared that its evacuation efforts have failed, leaving its citizens to fend for themselves.
After the Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Prime Minister Netanyahu had requested Trump to intervene urgently and assist Israel in defeating Iran. However, Trump categorically refused, as the initial Iranian counterattacks had not only shaken Israel but also made Trump wary.
Yet, in recent days, reports have emerged of over 30 large US aerial refueling tankers rushing to the Middle East to provide in-flight refueling for Israeli fighter jets. Concurrently, the US "Nimitz" Carrier Strike Group has been urgently repositioned towards the region.
Breaking News: Trump's Unexpected Move
Today, it was announced that President Trump has abruptly left the G7 summit and returned to the US, upgrading the White House to a wartime status in response to the escalating situation in the Middle East.
In a significant shift from his previous stance of non-intervention, Trump now claims that the US "might" get involved in strikes against Iran.
As previously discussed, if Israel were to achieve a decisive victory over Iran, Trump, known for his desire to claim credit for major successes, might very well join the fight to claim the spoils of war.
However, if Iran were to put up a strong resistance, the US might simply provide logistical support to Israel from a safe distance.
Given Iran's apparent weakness and the fact that its airspace is now largely controlled by Israel, it is not out of the question that Trump, upon his hasty return, might consider increasing the US military presence in the Middle East.
It is clear that Trump's signaling of potential US involvement in the Middle East is an attempt to exert maximum pressure on Iran, forcing it to surrender.
At this juncture, Iran's options are severely limited.
Moreover, Iran's past actions of abandoning allies and stabbing them in the back have left many of its former allies disillusioned.
During critical moments, Iran has shown a lack of support for its allies in the Middle East.
Iran's new president, in an attempt to ingratiate himself with the US at the UN, went so far as to betray Russia by halting drone supplies, signaling a shift in allegiance.
During the Syrian civil war, Iranian troops stationed in Syria simply withdrew, losing a key stronghold against Israel in the region.
In a baffling move, during the India-Pakistan conflict, Iran chose to abandon Pakistan, its ally, and instead pursued a strategic partnership with India, alienating several major powers in the process.
Israel Strikes Back: Iran's Diplomatic Blunders
With the outbreak of the Israeli offensive against Iran, India has taken the opportunity to stab Iran in the back. While Pakistan has voiced support for Iran, it has also made it clear that it will not retaliate against Israel if nuclear weapons are used.
Iran's current predicament of being abandoned by its allies can be largely attributed to its inconsistent and erratic foreign policy.
Even if Israel were to occupy Iranian airspace, it would not be the end of the story. Hamas, despite having no airspace to defend, and the Houthi rebels, who lacked even basic air defense, have both managed to endure.
However, with the elimination of Iran's hardline military leaders, if a surrender faction were to seize power and incite domestic unrest, Iran would truly be in grave danger.
Following Netanyahu's public threats to eliminate Khamenei, there have been reports of Iranian opposition groups becoming increasingly active, spreading rumors of Khamenei's death in an attempt to destabilize Iran and incite chaos.
Despite being in a life-or-death struggle with Israel, Iran's stance remains contradictory. On one hand, there are declarations of a fight to the finish, while on the other, there are desperate peace overtures and even unconditional concessions. It is this indecisiveness at a critical moment that has led Iran, which held a strong hand, into a crisis.
Yet, even if Iran were to surrender now, its fate would not be a favorable one. It would not only face exploitation by the US and Israel but could also potentially suffer a collapse similar to that of Syria.
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