Today's update is brief, focusing on a significant development on the Ukraine-Russia battleground.
What happened?
In the early hours of yesterday morning, at some Russian Air Force bases far from the Ukraine-Russia frontline, the sound of drones suddenly filled the air. This was followed by successive explosions, illuminating the sky with fiery bursts, and then thick smoke billowed into the air.
The explosions shocked not only Russia but the entire world.
Naturally, there are differing accounts of the losses from Russia and Ukraine: The Ukrainian side claims to have destroyed 41 of Russia's strategic bombers, while the Russian side disputes this number. However, the fact remains that the event occurred.
Why has this incident sent shockwaves around the world?
Because the entire episode is shrouded in mystery, with many aspects that seem utterly incredible!
Just these three points alone make it clear:
Firstly, the Russian airbases that were targeted are extremely far from the frontline of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Let's take a look at a map to see where these airbases are located.
Can you see it?
One of the targeted airbases is located thousands of miles away from the frontline and is only about 1,000 kilometers from our border!
What is the name of this airbase?
It's called Belaya Airbase.
Located in Irkutsk Oblast.
I've heard quite a bit about this city: Around 13 years ago, when I was on a business trip to Manzhouli in Inner Mongolia, many locals suggested that since I was there with ample time, I might as well take a short trip to Irkutsk.
They said it was convenient to find a travel agency and get the necessary documents processed; it would be like a quick international getaway.
At first, I was somewhat tempted. However, when I arrived near the Manzhouli border and took a look, I was taken aback and decided against such a "drag-along" short trip.
On our side, while not exactly skyscraper-dense, it's at least bustling and vibrant with neon lights and lively nightlife. Glancing over to the Russian side, beyond a small hill, there are a few inconspicuous shabby houses, countless withered grasses swaying in the cool April breeze, stretching endlessly into the distance!
Just how "endless" is this distance?
The locals told me: In the direction of Russia, the nearest place that could rival Manzhouli in terms of "prosperity" is Irkutsk.
It's 1,500 kilometers from Manzhouli and is the second-largest "metropolis" in Russia's Far East, with a population of 800,000, slightly less than Manzhouli.
But here's the kicker: Manzhouli is merely a county-level city on our side!
Was I supposed to take a bus for 3,000 kilometers round trip just to see endless grasslands and a city the size of a county?
I digress.
But from the above, it's evident how deep and far-reaching Ukraine's drone strikes on Russia have been this time.
Moving on to the second point: What method did the Ukrainians use to strike so far into Russian territory with drones?
Let's first look at what the Ukrainian side has to say.
After the attack, in a video address on the evening of the local time yesterday, Zelensky claimed responsibility, stating that they had been preparing for this operation for 18 months.
How was it planned and prepared?
The operation, codenamed "Spider Web," involved the piecemeal transportation of personnel, drones, explosives, and command platforms from Ukraine into Russian territory.
Subsequently, after the drones were assembled, they were concealed in trucks, which were topped with wooden structures to avoid detection.
The interior of the truck when opened.
Once everything was ready, all personnel lay low near the target, maintaining silence and radio silence, awaiting orders.
On June 1st, the order was given.
The Ukrainian operatives, who had been lying in wait, hired local Russian drivers to follow pre-designed routes. As they approached the Russian military airbase, the operatives remotely opened the truck tops and activated the drones.
One by one, the drones, following routes preset by artificial intelligence, launched wave after wave of attacks on the Russian airbases!
Are the claims made by the Ukrainian side credible?
There is, in fact, a considerable degree of credibility to their statements!
Russian media reported that near the above-mentioned airbase, the Belaya Airbase in Irkutsk, several young locals spotted drones continuously taking off from trucks to attack the airbase. They climbed onto the trucks to stop them, with some standing on top of the vehicles and others below, handing up stones and sticks in an attempt to smash the drones that hadn't yet taken off and break their propellers.
It should be noted that engaging in such actions is extremely dangerous, as these drones were loaded with several kilograms of explosives, and the trucks were later found to be equipped with detonation devices!
From this video alone, it's evident how caught off guard Russia was by this incident.
Now, the third and most baffling point, which I've touched on several times before: While the Ukrainians have taken responsibility for the attack, could they have achieved all of this on their own?
The targeted airbases are vast and situated on flat terrain with no surrounding mountains. It's unlikely that the Ukrainian operatives, who had infiltrated, could have scoured the area without success, let alone found opportunities to strike.
Moreover, even if they had spotted something, they would still need to identify high-value targets to maximize the impact.
Otherwise, after 18 months of lying in wait, if they ended up destroying mere shrubbery, that would be a tremendous waste!
Furthermore, to effectively strike, the attacks would need to be synchronized; otherwise, the enemy would become alert, and future operations would be compromised. They would need to meticulously monitor the daily movements of military aircraft at these airbases to determine the most opportune moment for an attack that would yield the greatest return.
Lastly, these drones couldn't possibly be manually controlled like those on the battlefield, as remote signals are easily jammed. A more advanced control mechanism would be necessary!
How could all of this be accomplished?
Through satellites coupled with artificial intelligence!
So, while the incident may seem low-tech—a mere group of Ukrainians infiltrating Russia—upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the technological sophistication behind it is not only substantial but also top-notch on our planet!
Having addressed these three points, one might begin to sense that there's more to this than meets the eye.
However, the gravity of the situation far exceeds imagination, necessitating a deeper exploration.
Some videos have already been released, showing that the Ukrainian drones targeted remarkably significant assets:
- Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers;
- Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers;
- Antonov An-12 transport aircraft;
- AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft...
Setting aside the latter two, let's focus on the first two.
First, let's clarify the concept of the "nuclear triad."
What does it entail?
- Land-based systems;
- Airborne platforms;
- Seaborne vessels.
On land, there are primarily two types: one is mobile launchers for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that are constantly on the move; the other is silo-based ICBMs.
In the air, the primary asset is strategic bombers, which carry air-launched ICBMs to a designated position and unleash devastating force upon the enemy.
Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bomber
At sea, the main component is submarines.
These three elements are for a major power!
In reality, while many people show great interest in ICBMs, the strategic bombers often receive less attention. However, if one thinks this way, they are entirely mistaken. Within the "nuclear triad," strategic bombers are the most powerful platforms for a major power to project power. Their delivery capability far surpasses that of ICBMs!
Take Russia's Sarmat ICBM, for example—it's quite renowned.
The delivery cost is $30 million, and the Russians frequently parade it to intimidate others!
Yet, its warhead weighs only 1 ton!
In contrast, a strategic bomber can carry 20 to 40 tons per mission, with a delivery cost of just a few hundred thousand dollars!
The cost-effectiveness ratio between the two weapons differs by over 200 times.
What does this mean?
You might recall that when Iran launched missiles at Israel, many people were initially pleased. However, I pointed out at the time that using missiles against them was actually quite costly. Iran's missiles have a warhead of at most a few hundred kilograms, and to increase range, they even have to reduce the weight. Each missile costs millions of dollars!
On the other hand, Israel used American M84 air bombs to strike Gaza, each weighing about 1 ton and costing just over $100,000!
The cost is dozens of times higher, yet the effect is inferior!
If, as the Ukrainian side claims, their operation destroyed 41 of Russia's strategic bombers, this would equate to a reduction of nearly one-third of Russia's strategic nuclear deterrence capability. Such a loss is strategic in nature and beyond the scope of conventional warfare to quantify!
At this point, someone might argue: Up to this point, the entire attack seems normal. Russia strikes Ukraine, Ukraine retaliates against Russia—both sides engage in mutual combat. Why do you say this attack is filled with mystery?
Here, we need to examine what weapons are being used on the Ukraine-Russia battlefield:
- Infantry fighting vehicles;
- Aviation bombs;
- Drones;
- Artillery;
- Tanks...
Of course, there are also soldiers from both sides engaging in village-to-village combat with rifles and grenades!
High-end assets like strategic bombers and nuclear weapons—do they have a place on the Ukraine-Russia battlefield?
They do not!
In fact, their use could even provoke the Russians into a fierce retaliation, escalating the conflict further!
Because these strategic bombers primarily serve as a deterrent against the U.S. and Europe, not Ukraine!
The Ukrainian side publicly claims responsibility for the attack, which offers no benefits and poses significant drawbacks!
On the flip side, it greatly benefits the U.S. and Europe by destroying the part of Russia's nuclear deterrent that they fear the most, without incurring the risk of large-scale nuclear retaliation from Russia!
It should be noted that if this had occurred during the Cold War era, if the U.S. or Europe had attempted to destroy a Russian nuclear strategic bomber with missiles or the air force, it would undoubtedly have triggered a nuclear war!
Moreover, for the Russians, there is an even more daunting reality: if these strategic bombers are destroyed, it will be extremely difficult to replace them in the short term!
The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a systemic breakdown in Russia's production chain for strategic bombers, as these aircraft were previously manufactured or assembled in Ukraine!
Russia has had to scavenge for materials and blueprints, engaging in what could be termed "weapons archaeology." Last year, they managed to cobble together two bombers using parts left over from the Soviet era!
However, these were Tu-160s.
What about the Tu-95MS?
With an age exceeding 40 years, the Soviet Union decided to discontinue production before its dissolution. Now, Russia relies primarily on major overhauls to maintain the combat readiness of these bombers!
At this point, we can discern the extraordinary nature of this incident and the extent of the hidden machinations behind it!
It must be said: This is a well-crafted scheme, and Russia has been severely outmaneuvered!
The幕后黑手 (black hand behind the scenes) has managed to weaken a significant portion of Russia's nuclear deterrence without triggering a nuclear war!
It should be noted that, given Russia's current national strength, its nuclear deterrence is the last trump card sustaining its status as a major power!
Incidentally, following this incident, the White House hastily denied any prior knowledge of the event, claiming, "We didn't know about it in advance! So don't blame us!"
Another update: Today, June 2nd, was supposed to be the date for the second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
There's an unconfirmed report that after meeting, the representatives from both sides talked for about an hour before dispersing.
What can be said about this?
Yesterday's event was simply too significant, potentially causing a considerable tilt in the global strategic nuclear balance!
Although neither side has explicitly accused the other, both are well aware of the mastermind behind the scenes!
No one can swallow this bitter pill!
This incident might very well become a super variable in the future development of the world!
From this event, we can observe that beneath the U.S.'s recent facade of warmth and adoration toward Russia, there lies another face filled with malice, desiring the opponent's annihilation.
One cannot help but lament that the world we see today is increasingly unrecognizable from the one we once knew; they might as well be two entirely different worlds.
Everyone must take good care of themselves!
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