The recent move by Trump to send letters to 14 countries, particularly targeting Japan first and proposing a 25% tariff, has sent shockwaves through Japan. For the Japanese, this move is nothing short of a bolt from the blue—it completely upends the logic that has guided Japan’s survival and prosperity over the past 150 years.
So, what has been Japan’s survival logic over the past century and a half?
Japan has long positioned itself as the most powerful island nation in East Asia and has allied with the strongest Western powers—first Britain, and later the United States. By standing on the front line of the island chain to contain the great powers of the eastern Eurasian continent, Japan has exchanged security contributions and political alliances for economic leniency and strategic space from the world’s dominant powers. To put it bluntly, Japan has essentially acted as a “subordinate power” in Asia.
Many people believe that Japan’s rise is due to its ability to reform and innovate. That’s nonsense. If the Japanese were truly innovative and adept at reform, why do they still rely so heavily on email when many other Asian countries have moved on to other forms of communication? Why are fax machines still so popular in Japan?
The Japanese have been convinced that their strategic location is the best guarantee for their development. They believe that whoever the world’s most powerful nation is, it must maintain a “special relationship” with Japan. This “special relationship” has always meant substantial economic benefits for Japan.
Recently, Japan has taken a tough stance on trade issues with the United States, precisely because they felt they had the leverage: without Japan playing its role as a “subordinate power,” the U.S. would struggle to maintain its hegemony. On July 2, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba insisted that Japan would be treated differently by the United States. With Japan’s Upper House elections scheduled for July 20, Ishiba said at a debate hosted by the Japan National Press Club, “Our situation is different from other countries.”
Understanding this mindset helps explain why the tariff letter from Trump on July 9 was such a psychological blow to the Japanese. It shattered many Japanese people’s illusions about the “special relationship” between the two countries. Japanese media reported that the tone and wording of Trump’s letter left Japanese officials “shocked.”
So, why is the survival logic that has worked for Japan for the past 150 years no longer effective today?
The answer lies in the changing global landscape. For the past 400 to 500 years, the rise of the West—Europe and America—has been the dominant trend. Japan rode this wave, but now the West is clearly on the decline. The foundation of Japan’s survival logic over the past century has been eroded. Otherwise, Trump wouldn’t have sent that letter.
In fact, for most of its history, Japan has been a poor country. In 2024, Japan’s total grain production was only 6.83 million tons. If ranked among Chinese provinces, it would be 23rd, comparable to mountainous provinces like Zhejiang and Fujian. Vietnam, which has a similar land area to Japan, produced over 40 million tons of grain last year. In an agrarian society, grain production is a direct indicator of national strength and wealth. For most of the past millennium, Japan’s national power was not even a fraction of Vietnam’s. This is precisely why Japan was willing to play the role of a “subordinate power.”
Now, the question arises: with the decline of the West, the internal logic of Japan’s rise over the past 150 years no longer exists. Where will Japan go from here?
In this world, only a few major countries can truly change their destinies against the odds. Most countries, like Japan, which are not major players, may sometimes catch the wave of the times and prosper for a while, but once the tide turns, they will inevitably decline.
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